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Dubai CondoBase Journal

What the condo markets we cover are actually doing

Six cities, the figures that describe them, and the organisation that published each one. Every number here carries its source, the period it covers and a link — so you can check it, disagree with it, and see what it was measuring.

6 cities Last updated 12 October 2026

How to read this page

  • No source, no number. Every figure names the organisation that published it and the period it covers. Where a city has no published figure, it has no metric — an absent number is honest, a plausible one is not.
  • The date on a metric is that figure’s own date, not the date of this page. Vintages differ by report: a Q3 2026 yield can sit beside a Q1 2026 price index, and each is labelled separately.
  • Rental yields are gross. They are median asking rent × 12 ÷ median asking price, before tax, fees and empty months. The publisher’s own guidance is that net yields are typically 1.5–2 percentage points lower.
  • An arrow shows direction, not judgement. A falling inventory-life figure is good news; a falling absorption rate is not. The note on each metric says which.
  • Where reports disagree, both are shown. Da Nang has two published average presale prices and Saigon three, because they measure different things. We do not average them into one number.

The one figure here that is ours

Everything above is somebody else’s research. This is ours, and it is a rule rather than a market statistic — it holds in all 6 cities whatever the market does:

Free while we launch. Flat agent fees — each agent sets their own, never a % of rent.

Bangkok · Pattaya · Manila · Cebu · Da Nang · Saigon — the rents and fees on Dubai CondoBase, not an estimate of anybody else’s.

Thailand

Bangkok

Thailand

Bangkok prices are flat while its condos still yield 5.93%

Bangkok condominium prices are flat while rents are not. The city’s residential price index fell 0.18% year on year in Q1 2026 — the only Thai region to decline — yet Bangkok condos averaged a 5.93% gross rental yield in Q3 2026, and CBRE expects downtown asking prices to rise by as much as 15% during 2026.

Inside Bangkok, condominiums were the one segment still growing (+1.95%) while the wider index slipped. The correction is showing up in what gets built and who is buying: condo completions fell 38.3% year on year in the first two months of 2026, and foreign transfers dropped 17.3% to 3,241 units in Q1.

Gross rental yield (city)

5.93%

Global Property Guide with DDproperty · Q3 2026

Price index, year on year

−0.18%

The only Thai region to fall. Condominiums were the one Bangkok segment still rising, at +1.95%.

Bank of Thailand via Global Property Guide · Q1 2026

Condo completions, year on year

−38.3%

Fewer handovers, not fewer buyers — developers cut the pipeline after a slow 2025.

Bank of Thailand via Global Property Guide · Jan–Feb 2026

Foreign condo transfers

3,241 units

−17.3% year on year, worth THB 13.46bn (−17.9%).

REIC via Global Property Guide · Q1 2026

What to watch

  • Chinese buyers pulled back hardest: 906 units, −38.8% year on year. Russian buyers went the other way, up 33.0% to 383 units (REIC, Q1 2026).
  • CBRE expects downtown asking prices to climb as much as 15% in 2026 — but says that reflects a shift of launches into the luxury and super-luxury segments, where existing supply is already 93% sold. JLL attributes flat capital values to inventory-clearance discounts concentrated in mid-Sukhumvit.
  • The foreign quota has not moved: section 19 of the Condominium Act allows foreigners to hold no more than 49% of a condominium building, and they cannot own the land under it at all.
  • Government stimulus is doing the work. Transfer and mortgage-registration fees are cut to 0.01% for homes priced at or below THB 7 million; homes under that line recorded 69,447 transfers (+12.7%) while sales above it fell 14.8% to 3,136 units.

Sources

Figures as of: Yields Q3 2026 · prices and transfers Q1 2026 · outlook 2026

Live listings in Bangkok

Pattaya & Chon Buri

Thailand

Foreign money concentrates in Chon Buri, where yields beat Bangkok’s

Pattaya is where foreign money actually lands. Chon Buri recorded more foreign condominium transfers than any other Thai province in Q1 2026, and coastal provinces are the only part of Thailand where foreigners take more than 30% of condominium transactions. Chon Buri’s gross yields averaged 6.10% in Q3 2026, above Bangkok’s 5.93%.

Nationwide, foreign buyers went from about 7% of condominium sales in 2020 to 15% today, so a coastal province where they take more than a third of transactions is an outlier rather than the norm. The pattern is not symmetric either: Chonburi leads on the number of foreign transfers, Bangkok on their value.

Gross rental yield (Chon Buri)

6.10%

Above Bangkok’s 5.93% city average on the same method.

Global Property Guide with DDproperty · Q3 2026

1-bedroom yield, Bang Lamung

8.71%

Median USD 100,600 to buy, USD 730 a month to rent — the district around Pattaya.

Global Property Guide with DDproperty · Q3 2026

Foreign condo transfers, Chonburi

Most in Thailand

By unit count. Bangkok took the highest value, at THB 13.46bn nationwide.

REIC via Global Property Guide · Q1 2026

Foreign share, coastal provinces

Above 30%

Share of total condominium transactions. Nationwide the figure is about 15%, up from roughly 7% in 2020.

JLL, citing Department of Lands and REIC · November 2025

What to watch

  • The average hides a wide spread inside one district: a Bang Lamung 1-bedroom showed 8.71% gross while a 4-bedroom in the same district showed 3.38% (Global Property Guide, Q3 2026).
  • Chiang Mai is the other foreign-heavy market — roughly 20% of ownership in 2025 — but it is a domestic-retiree story, not a beach one (JLL).
  • The 49% building quota and the no-land rule apply in Pattaya exactly as in Bangkok. Section 19 of the Condominium Act does not vary by province.

Sources

Figures as of: Yields Q3 2026 · transfers Q1 2026

Live listings in Pattaya & Chon Buri

Philippines

Manila

Philippines

Manila has our highest yields and 78,600 unsold units

Metro Manila is a renter’s market with the highest yields of our six cities: Manila City apartments averaged 6.18% gross in Q3 2026 against 5.46% for Metro Manila as a whole. Luxury CBD condominiums were selling for about ₱197,500 per square metre in Q1 2026, down from ₱202,590 in Q3 2025, with roughly 78,600 units unsold.

Demand is recovering from a low base while supply arrives anyway. Preselling take-up jumped 765% year on year to about 2,000 units in Q1 2026, but nearly 13,000 units are expected to complete during 2026 against about 7,400 in 2025, and Colliers projects vacancy to peak at 25.6% before easing.

Gross rental yield (Manila City)

6.18%

Metro Manila as a whole averaged 5.46% on the same method.

Global Property Guide with Lamudi · Q3 2026

Luxury 3-bed CBD price

₱197,500/sqm

Down from ₱202,590/sqm in Q3 2025 — a third consecutive quarter of falling luxury prices.

Colliers via Global Property Guide · Q1 2026

Unsold condo inventory

≈78,600 units

Metro Manila, of which 27,900 are ready for occupancy. Concentrated in Cubao–New Manila, Quezon City, the Bay Area, Pasig and Alabang–Las Piñas.

Colliers via Global Property Guide · Q1 2026

Remaining inventory life

6.8 years

How long today’s unsold stock would take to clear. Down from a peak of 13.4 years in mid-2025 — falling is the improvement here.

Colliers via Global Property Guide · Q1 2026

What to watch

  • Colliers projects residential vacancy to peak at 25.6% by the end of 2026, up from 24.7% at end-2025, easing to 23.9% in 2027. The Bay Area submarket is above 50%.
  • The supply wave is short: roughly 13,000 completions in 2026, about a third of them along the C5 corridor, then Colliers expects only about 2,000 units a year from 2027 to 2029.
  • The Q1 rebound was concentrated at the bottom — units priced ₱1.8–3.6 million — which is where OFW money lands. Remittances hit a record USD 35.63bn in 2025, and the World Bank estimates about 60% of them flow into property.
  • Foreigners cannot own land in the Philippines and may hold no more than 40% of the units in a condominium complex; land can be leased for up to 99 years as of January 2026.

Sources

Figures as of: Yields Q3 2026 · prices, inventory and vacancy Q1 2026

Live listings in Manila

Cebu

Philippines

Cebu yields 5.08%, and its strongest demand is in studios

Cebu City yields 5.08% gross on average, below Metro Manila’s 5.46% and Manila City’s 6.18%, and its strongest segment is the smallest one: studios and one-bedrooms average 5.80%. A two-bedroom costs about USD 247,400 and rents for USD 1,040 a month; a three-bedroom rents for USD 1,515.

Cebu is the Philippines’ second economic hub, with renter demand from business-process outsourcing, a growing middle class and tourism-driven coastal areas. Its market is smaller, prices are not much lower than the capital’s, and yields are thinner — price is carrying more of the story than rent.

Gross rental yield (Cebu City)

5.08%

Metro Manila averaged 5.46% and Manila City 6.18% on the same method.

Global Property Guide with Lamudi · Q3 2026

Studio & 1-bedroom yield

5.80%

Median USD 111,800 to buy against USD 540 a month to rent — Cebu’s strongest product.

Global Property Guide with Lamudi · Q3 2026

Median 2-bedroom price

USD 247,400

Renting at USD 1,040 a month, which is the 5.04% yield. Metro Manila’s equivalent median is USD 289,000 — not a large gap.

Global Property Guide with Lamudi · Q3 2026

Median 3-bedroom rent

USD 1,515/mo

A 4.39% yield against a USD 414,400 median price.

Global Property Guide with Lamudi · Q3 2026

What to watch

  • Read this city as its own series, not as part of Manila’s. Colliers and the central bank publish Metro Manila survey data; Cebu’s numbers here are Global Property Guide’s own asking-price and asking-rent medians, which is a different method — do not plot them as one line.
  • Global Property Guide quotes these in US dollars converted from pesos, which is how its data table is published; a peso move changes the dollar figure without any property changing hands.
  • The 40% foreign-ownership cap in a condominium complex and the ban on foreign land ownership are national rules, so they bind in Cebu exactly as in Makati.

Sources

Figures as of: Yields and asking prices Q3 2026

Live listings in Cebu

Vietnam

Da Nang

Vietnam

Da Nang launched only luxury units in Q1 2026, and absorption fell

Da Nang’s apartment market went entirely upmarket: 100% of the units launched in Q1 2026 were luxury, at an average presale price of about VND 83 million per square metre, up 12% year on year — the Ministry of Construction puts it at VND 91 million. Absorption of new projects has fallen to roughly 50–60%.

A year earlier, about 60% of new supply sat in the VND 60–120 million band and the rest above it. Last quarter every new unit was priced above VND 120 million, supply clustered along the Han River in Hoa Xuan and An Hai, and most buyers came from Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City rather than Da Nang.

New Q1 launches in the luxury segment

100%

Not one mid-market or affordable launch. A year earlier about 60% of new supply was in the VND 60–120m band.

CBRE, reported by Aju Press · Q1 2026

Average presale price

~VND 83m/sqm

+12% year on year. The Ministry of Construction puts the city average at VND 91m/sqm, +10% — two published figures, shown rather than averaged.

CBRE, reported by Aju Press · Q1 2026

Absorption, new projects

~50–60%

Stalled or edged down from the late-2025 peak. The Han River projects in Hoa Xuan and An Hai ran at about 60%.

CBRE, reported by Aju Press · Q1 2026

Gross yield, 1-bedroom

2.34%

The oldest figure on this page, and the thinnest yield of any city here. Global Property Guide has not republished a Da Nang yield since.

Global Property Guide · February 2025

What to watch

  • Supply is expected to ease rather than recover: DKRA forecasts 1,000–1,500 units in Q2 2026, slightly below Q1, concentrated in Ngu Hanh Son.
  • CBRE still forecasts Da Nang apartment prices rising 10–12% a year, citing scarce land in the centre, riverfront and coastal strips, plus a planned international financial centre and free trade zone.
  • The mismatch is generational. Buyers aged 23–39 who want to live in Da Nang prefer affordable and mid-priced homes while the market builds luxury; CBRE Vietnam’s CEO calls absorption the market’s biggest challenge while borrowing costs are high.
  • Foreigners cannot own land in Vietnam. The Housing Law 2023, in force since August 2024, caps foreign ownership, and apartment ownership is leasehold — typically 50 years, renewable, with the terms subject to change.

Sources

Figures as of: Supply, prices and absorption Q1 2026 · yields February 2025

Live listings in Da Nang

Saigon (Ho Chi Minh City)

Vietnam

Saigon’s average price depends entirely on which city you mean

Ho Chi Minh City is two markets now. In the enlarged city, CBRE put the average primary price at about VND 76 million per square metre in Q2 2026, up 16% year on year, while 79% of first-half new supply came from the former Binh Duong province and only 13% from the old city. Gross yields average 4.16%.

The 2025 provincial mergers folded Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau into the city, and consultancies now report both footprints. Most new supply is built well outside the historic core, which pulls the enlarged-city average down — a compositional effect, not a price fall.

Gross rental yield (city avg)

4.16%

One-bedrooms average 4.72%. The latest published vintage — the Vietnam yield tables were last updated in 2025.

Global Property Guide with Batdongsang · Q3 2025

Average primary price, enlarged city

~VND 76m/sqm

About USD 2,890/sqm; +8% on the quarter, +16% on the year. Secondary prices averaged around VND 62m/sqm.

CBRE via Global Property Guide · Q2 2026

Average primary price, pre-merger city

~VND 98.1m/sqm

About USD 3,730/sqm, +10.5% year on year, against cumulative supply of nearly 342,300 units. Higher than the enlarged-city figure because it excludes the new outer districts.

JLL via Global Property Guide · Q2 2026

H1 2026 supply from former Binh Duong

79%

Of 10,761 units launched across the enlarged city. Only 13% came from the former Ho Chi Minh City; roughly 95% of the Binh Duong supply is high-end.

CBRE via Global Property Guide · H1 2026

What to watch

  • Do not compare the two price figures directly. The enlarged-city average is lower because most new supply sits outside the historic core — Global Property Guide calls out this trap explicitly, and reading it as a price fall is the standard error.
  • The published price for this city depends on the definition behind it, and the spread is wide: CBRE about VND 76m/sqm for the enlarged city, JLL about VND 98.1m/sqm pre-merger, and Cushman & Wakefield an all-time-high core-market average of nearly USD 7,300/sqm in Q1 2026. Check the definition and the date before comparing two quotes.
  • Core supply collapsed even as prices peaked: about 1,200 launches in core HCMC in Q1 2026, down 62% on the quarter and 47% on the year, with absorption below 1,000 units — roughly a quarter of what was launched (Cushman & Wakefield).
  • Affordability is the binding constraint. At VND 90–100 million per square metre, Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam estimated a typical dual-income household would need 50 to 85 years of savings. Mortgage rates ran at 12–13% through H1 2026 while GDP grew 8.39% year on year in Q2 — the fastest second quarter since 2011.
  • There is almost nothing left to buy in the centre: inventory in the pre-merger city is only about 2.3% of cumulative supply, and JLL recorded a cumulative absorption rate above 99% there.

Sources

Figures as of: Prices and supply Q2 2026 · core absorption Q1 2026 · yields Q3 2025

Live listings in Saigon (Ho Chi Minh City)
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